پژوهشنامه اقتصادی
پیاپی 52 (بهار 1393)

The study of the effect of memory in different economic indices, especially inflation and money market, has high research attractiveness. In this paper, by using the data of consumer price index for Iran during 1990/04 – 2011/11, we investigate the characteristics of CPI’s long–run memory and regress its ARFIMA model. In addition, the amount of error terms in ARFIMA model are examined by FIGARCH model in order to determine what model the heteroscedasticity in inflation is following. The results indicate that monthly time series of inflation may have non-integer root. In other words, the degree of integration for inflation can be a non-integer number rather than an integer. To determine this, an Augmented Dikey- Fuller test, Philips–Prone test and KPSS are used and the results show that the degree of integration for inflation series should lie between zero and one. Thus, the hypothesis of inflation series with memory is proposed. By estimating the parameter of long run memory in the model it becomes evident that the inflation series has the degree of integration of 0.46 and one time differentiating leads to over-differentiation. Hence, inflation series has a long run memory in Iran and the effects of each shock on this variable exists for long periods.

The main objective of this paper is to measure technical deficiency as well as identifying its effective determinants in 23 active industries at 2-digit level ISIC codes during the period 1995-2009. The paper has applied the technical deficiency criterion based on the Collie and Batis approach using the Translog production function in the industries. The findings indicate that the Iranian manufacturing industries have experienced an increasing trend for efficiency so as we have found an increase in the technical efficiency coefficient for all the manufacturing industries in the investigated period. The highest level of technical deficiency is observed in the following industries: production of garment and production and dying of fur; publishing, printing and copying of recorded media; manufacturing of textiles; and recycling. On the other hand, the highest level of technical efficiency is found in the manufacturing of chemicals and chemical products. The results show that the average value of technical deficiency is equal to 0.47. Also it is found that the more the concentration coefficient, the greater the level of deficiency. In other words, the industries with more concentrated structure have had more deficiency. Given the model, in the industries that have a larger coefficient for skilled workforce and benefit from the economies of scale, the level of deficiency has reduced. The findings also demonstrate that the expenditures for the research and development have not had a statistically significant effect on the deficiency decrease in the industries.

In this paper we have examined housing bubble and speculation in urban areas of Iran. For this purpose, we have designed a suitable model to identify factors determining housing prices in Iran and then, we have used GMM method to estimate the model for quarterly data in the period of 1996:2 to 2011:1. The results show that several variables including prices in previous periods, the rate of return in other markets (taking adjusted consumer price index as a proxy), housing supply (for which, we have used the number of construction permits as proxy), population growth and housing costs has had statistically significant impact on house prices in Iran. Contrary to our expectations, the coefficient of national income (GDP) variable has not been statistically significant. Taking prices of previous year as Proxy of speculation demand, while taking return in other markets, housing supply, changes in population and housing costs as proxy for consumption demand, we found that the share of speculating demand for housing has been 6.8 times higher than demand for consumption during the period under study. When we extend our sample up to 2012 and defining house price bubble as deviation of short term price from its long term trends, the result shows that in the three last quarters of year 2012, price bubble in housing of Iran was 17/8, 26/3 and 56/6 percent respectively for these quarters, which we can interpret them as the impact of psychological expectations and short term fluctuations.

In this paper, the impact of tax avoidance on the transparency of financial reporting of firms listed in Tehran Stock Exchange is investigated. The indexes that are used to measure tax avoidance and financial reporting transparency are respectively effective tax rate and accruals quality. The sample of study consists of 75 firms listed in Tehran Stock Exchange during the period of 2001 to 2010. In order to test the research hypothesis, ordinary least squares (OLS) regression is used. The results show that tax planning activity reduce financial reporting transparency. In other words, we can say that tax planning activity is required for masking complex transactions and this negatively affect the information environment of the companies and reduce financial reporting transparency.

Veblen was one of the most famous founding fathers of institutionalism who, with his pioneering studies, revolutionized economics in all its intellectual and philosophical traditions of the late nineteenth and early twentieth century. His scientific works were so influential that there are still a lot of endeavors to find out his viewpoints. Considering the unparalleled role of him in the development of institutional economics, this paper will specifically study different aspects of his ideas and thoughts. In fact, the important point is that what are the main theories and ideas of this great savant? What aspects of conventional economics were insufficient that encouraged him to build a school with the name of institutional economics? What was his methodological approach to economics? What kind of transformations this approach has created in the scope of economic knowledge? Veblen's unique vision makes such questions regarding his thoughts as considerable important ones. For, in the history of economic thought, his attack to epistemological and methodological foundations of conventional economics is one of the most serious ones. In this context, this paper will address the above questions, and scrutinize a few aspects of his important achievements and will represent some of the epistemological, methodological and theoretical innovations of his works.

The aim of this paper is to investigate the behavior of stock, exchange and gold coin markets and their correlations structure by using the DCC-GARCH model and the daily data for the period from 23 July 2011 to 22 September 2013 in Iran. Results show that there is a high correlation between returns of Exchange rate and gold coin. But the correlation between returns of stock market index and Exchange rate or gold coin is low. Policy implications on portfolio strategies under DCC model results are also discussed.

Banking industry is the most important type of financial intermediaries in Iran which, by sound organization and management of its resources and their use, can provide grounds for economic growth and prosperity. Because of the extensive network of relationships between banking sector and major sectors of the economy, shocks initiated in the banking sector can affect the behavior of economic agents and macroeconomic variables such as output and inflation. Among the set of most important shocks to bank balance sheet, we can name examples such as shocks of deposit withdrawals by depositors and bank liquidity shocks, both as liability shocks and shocks to the reserve of non-performing assets as an asset shock. As a result, the effects of banking sector balance-sheet shocks on macroeconomic variables are important. In this study, by using New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model and the annual data for the period of 1981-2012, we examine the response of macroeconomic variables such as output and inflation to banking sector’s balance-sheet shocks. To extract the parameters of the DSGE model, we use calibration method and then we use the moments of first and second order to evaluate the accuracy of the model based on autocorrelation coefficients and response functions. The results of model evaluation showed a pattern consistent with theoretical expectations and the realities of the Iranian economy. The results also showed that the negative effects of balance sheet shocks stemming from the shocks of the reserve of non-performing loans on output and inflation are higher than the shocks resulting from withdrawal of deposits and bank liquidity shocks, but the effects are diminished in shorter period of time. On the other hand, the negative impact of the liquidity shock is lower than other shocks and in a very short period of time, the effects of this type of shocks fade out and inflation and output variables rapidly converge to a stable state.